Could Fragmented Interwebs Threaten the Global World Order

a doom and gloom story about the Great Chinese Firewall

Cybersecurity (cysec) professionals often look to the future through a lens of technology, good and bad. It is true that some in our profession have created a professionalization of “Chicken-little syndrome” where cysecers spread the gospel of doom and gloom. The threats can be real or perceived, but the trend is unhelpful when tipping points go largely ignored. Cysec pros have very little prospect for enabling a national or even state dialogue about strategic risk. But what is truly strategic that presents a clear and present risk in cybserspace?

As of January 2023, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) still had the largest digital population in the world. At over one billion online users, the PRC comes in at nearly twice the online community as India — its next largest user-base — followed by the United States. [1] The PRC’s internet user growth rate is nearly 2% and holding steady with a high rate (61%) in rural areas. [2] The growth and numbers contrasted against India and the U.S. frame a compelling area of competition between western, liberal world order and a communist-inspired world. Where the demarcation point is between the two is for another discussion.

What is fascinating and problematic, is how the PRC looks to change what was once a unipolar digital landscape largely founded by researchers and government programs in the U.S. As early as 1998, the Ministry of Public Security (MPS), a largely domestic enforcement agency established the Golden Shield Project. Today we refer to this mass surveillance and censoring system as the Great Firewall of China. The Great Firewall has affected the Chinese youth already, having largely limited access to Google and other western technologies. And, it has steadily become more invasive, draconian even, supported by informants and is both heavily monitored and enforced. [3]

The long-term effects, some might argue, are hard to factor. Known as “the most sophisticated content-filtering Internet regime in the world, “ the Great Firewall is essentially a billion-endpoint intrusion prevention system tuned to block words, terms, and unwanted Internet Protocol (IP) addresses from ‘adversarial’ nations. [4] The Great Firewall’s capability and application for mass surveillance and control is clear, as it scans every single inbound and outbound packet for prohibited destinations and even prohibitions known as the “seven perils” listed in Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Document #9 . That might not translate into catastrophic or even significant risk to the U.S. and the liberal world order. Or does it?

Two respected PRC military academies wrote extensively about a shift in the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) doctrine in this era. PLA strategists called for a move in warfare towards intelligentization from informationization. This shift is not coincidental. In essence, the PLA have shifted warfare strategy from joint warfighting functions to a more “multi-domain integrated joint operations.” The military jargon can be daunting, but in essence the PRC is preparing to fight far from home over an extended period, based mainly on their principle adversary — the U.S. The PRC plans to use a heightened sense of diplomacy and the intelligentization of cyberspace. PLA strategy, to match, has moved to a more preparatory posture. [5]

To link PLA doctrine and strategy shifts to CCP strategy, we look to the 14th Five-Year Plan. While the Plan reads like a diplomatic, infrastructure, and economic Magna Carte, buried within are the clues that are as explicit as suggesting research and development in “leapfrog technology” and more softly suggested in its control of global information flow. [6] Does this overt Plan and shift in military doctrine, coinciding with the Golden Shield Project really threaten any western functions, even beyond military-based functions?

It is unclear, but what is clear is that there is an intent to “leap frog” the U.S. in a more weaponized information space — in cyberspace. The most dangerous future is one where the government of the largest online user-base segments internet traffic to those within the PRC’s orbit and those without. A dangerous future where new protocols are spawned, after nearly 50 years of agreed upon and practiced international standards, only further threatens to segment the worlds information flow. It threatens digital monetary systems, social credit, and core freedoms in the west that we need to start to care about. The time to understand the gentle nature of this threat is upon us.

References:

[1] “Number of internet users by country 2023,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/statistics/262966/number-of-internet-users-in-selected-countries/.

[2] T. text provides general information S. assumes no liability for the information given being complete or correct D. to varying update cycles and S. C. D. M. up-to-D. D. T. R. in the Text, “Topic: Internet usage in China,” Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/1179/internet-usage-in-china/.

[3] Y. Wang, “In China, the ‘Great Firewall’ Is Changing a Generation,” POLITICO, Sep. 01, 2020. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/09/01/china-great-firewall-generation-405385.

[4] “China’s Great Firewall.” https://cs.stanford.edu/people/eroberts/cs181/projects/2010-11/FreeExpressionVsSocialCohesion/china_policy.html.

[5] J. Wuthnow, “What I Learned From the PLA’s Latest Strategy Textbook | RealClearDefense,” May 26, 2021. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/05/26/what_i_learned_from_the_plas_latest_strategy_textbook_778804.html.

[6] “Translation: 14th Five-Year Plan for National Informatization — Dec. 2021,” DigiChina. https://digichina.stanford.edu/work/translation-14th-five-year-plan-for-national-informatization-dec-2021/.